San Francisco Market Update - April 2025

Quick Take:
- A rezoning plan to build 82,000 new homes in San Francisco by 2031
- Tariffs & market volatility: What’s the impact on consumers
- Demand outpaces supply, boosting some segments of the market
- The pros and cons of private listings

Rezoning on the Rise: SF’s Big Housing Push

Earlier this month, Mayor Daniel Lurie unveiled a sweeping rezoning plan to tackle San Francisco’s housing shortage—and meet the state’s demand to build 82,000 new homes by 2031. So far, the city’s only hit about 10% of that goal.

The proposal focuses on boosting density along major transit routes and commercial corridors—especially in areas that haven’t added much housing in decades. It would allow for height increases such as:
- 65-foot buildings on streets like California, Clement, and Balboa
- 85-foot buildings along Geary, Taraval, Judah, and Noriega
- Several hundred-foot towers on parts of Van Ness|

The new plan calls for significantly higher building heights along key corridors—up to 25 stories on Polk Street and 49 on Geary Boulevard. On the city’s West Side—covering Districts 1, 4, 7, and 8—most residential areas would see this “density decontrol,” meaning there’d be no cap on the number of units allowed per lot, as long as they stay within the existing height limits.

Supporters say it’s a long-overdue step to address the housing crisis. Critics warn it could change neighborhood character and lead to displacement. 

Still, rezoning doesn’t mean skyscrapers overnight—construction is slow, expensive, and tangled in red tape. Even policies already in place, like allowing fourplexes, haven’t sparked new development. The plan will face more public hearings before final votes by the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors. If it’s not approved by January 2026, San Francisco could lose control over its housing approvals under state law. The proposed zoning changes can be found here.

 

Global tariffs may feel far away, but their impact is real—even here in San Francisco. Tariffs on materials like steel, lumber, and appliances are pushing construction and renovation costs higher. This affects both new development and resale homes, adding pressure to pricing and limiting inventory.
For buyers, rising costs and broader economic uncertainty have led to more caution. Many are taking a more analytical approach, focused on long-term value and affordability.

 

Mortgage Rates Remain under 7%

U.S. Home Sales Fall to Lowest Level in 16 Years

Existing-home sales declined 5.9% in March 2025, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million. Compared to a year ago, sales were down 2.4%. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted, “Home buying and selling activity remained subdued in March, largely due to persistent affordability hurdles tied to elevated mortgage rates. With residential mobility at historic lows, we may be facing broader implications for economic mobility across society.” (National Association of Realtors)

San Francisco Price Trends

Single-family homes in San Francisco continue to hold strong, maintaining their value even as condo prices trend downward over time. In fact, single-family homes are now selling for the highest percentage of their original list price since the Fed began raising interest rates. Inventory remains a major challenge across the market, with both single-family and condo listings steadily declining—adding further pressure to an already tight housing supply. Still, volatility in the market has caused buyers to carefully consider the short and long-term ramifications of owning a home, including renovation costs and investment potential. We strongly urge our selling clients to consider the buying pool for their homes, and then curate and market accordingly.

A Buyer or Seller’s Market? Look at This Key Metric

To determine whether we’re in a buyer’s or seller’s market, we look at the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. Historically, California has averaged around three months of MSI, which is considered a balanced market. Markets with less than three months of supply favor sellers, while those with more than three months favor buyers. Today, single-family homes have just 1.5 months of inventory, clearly signaling a strong seller’s market. Meanwhile, the condo market tells a different story—with 3.7 months of inventory, buyers have more negotiating power and opportunities to find good deals.

San Francisco’s Inventory Levels

San Francisco’s inventory challenges are nothing new. We've been tracking a steady downtrend in available listings for quite some time. This past month, the number of homes sold once again outpaced the number of new listings coming to market, pushing inventory even lower. At the root of the issue is housing affordability. Homeowners who secured low mortgage rates are understandably reluctant to sell, as moving would likely mean taking on a larger loan at a much higher rate—significantly increasing their housing costs. This dynamic continues to limit supply and amplify the affordability crisis that has been a major topic of concern for years.